Oscars shock as lead actress contenders shut out of 2025 nominations

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The second bloc is a cluster of peer-voted awards: the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards (both on February 8), the Writers Guild awards (February 15), the BAFTA Film Awards (held in London, on February 16) and the Screen Actors Guild awards (February 23).

The voting membership of those guilds more closely mirror the voting membership of the Academy, so they generally offer more accurate insight into which directors, writers, actors and films might win on Oscar night.

Wicked finally steps into award season: nominees Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo.Credit: Flavio Brancaleone

Of those, the Producers Guild is generally the brightest north star. For the last decade, the PGAs have pre-crowned the Oscar best picture seven out of 10 times and only on three occasions were the ceremonies split: 2016 (The Big Short vs Spotlight), 2017 (La La Land vs Moonlight) and 2020 (1917 vs Nomadland).

If you were betting on this year’s Oscars, The Brutalist has emerged from the pack as a likely winner of best picture, with its star Adrien Brody as the man most likely in the best actor category. Best actress is a wider field with many of the early season favourites out of contention; Fernanda Torres and Demi Moore are now the two to beat.

The year’s most Oscar-decorated film is Emilia Pérez, with 13 nominations. The Brutalist and Wicked, which have both commanded a large slice of media attention during award season, have 10 nominations apiece. And Conclave and A Complete Unknown are both nominated for eight Oscars.

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Plans for this year’s Oscars have been impacted by the Los Angeles wildfires; the voting deadline of January 12 was extended to January 17, and the nomination announcement – scheduled for January 17 – was delayed until today.

A number of related events have also been affected. The AFI Awards lunch has been rescheduled to February 6, the BAFTA “Tea Party” and annual Oscar “nominees luncheon” have been cancelled, and the Critics’ Choice Awards has moved to February 7.

The date of the Academy Awards, March 2, remains unchanged. The ceremony will be hosted by comedian Conan O’Brien. In Australia, Seven and 7plus will air the Oscars live from 10:30am.

Nominees in key categories:

Best picture: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked.

Director: Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance).

Actor: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice).

Actress: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here).

Supporting actor: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice).

Supporting actress: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldana (Emilia Pérez).

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